Still Early, but Pitching Looks Good
Of course, its still far too early to predict what the opening day 40 man roster is going to look like, but so far so good. While I’d love to see Johan Santana in a Red Sox uniform, I’ll freely admit that I’m rather attached to Ellsbury, Buchholz, and Lester. Assuming that Johan never shows up in the weight room in Fort Myers, I’m still pretty happy with what I see on paper.
Pitching
Josh Beckett
Beckett finished 2007 with a record of 20-7 an ERA of 3.27 and 194 strikeouts. These numbers were excellent, but not great enough to get him a Cy Young. From what little I know about Josh Beckett, I’m expecting even greater things in 2008. It is hard to imagine him improving on his record and ERA, but I do believe they will be better.
Daisuke Matsuzaka
One of two things is going to happen in Dice-K’s sophomore season. He’s either going to be better acclimated to Major League Baseball and have fewer meltdown moments or the batters are going to figure him out and knock the stuffing out of him. I’m going to remain optimistic and expect better things from him in 2008. I am predicting a record around 17-10 and an ERA in the high 3’s, fewer dingers, and upwards of 210 strikeouts.
Curt Schilling
The real question with Curt is, “Can he stay healthy?” I’m convinced he’ll arrive at camp in excellent physical condition, and while that would certainly help there are no givens with 40+ pitchers. I do believe that we’ll see more starts out of #38, but I’m pretty confident they’re going to have him on an ironclad pitch count. If they can keep him off the DL, I believe he can win 18 even at his age. I am not expecting a big improvement over his 3.87 ERA for ‘07 though. He’s going to pitch well enough to win and the offense is going to go out there and get him some wins.
Tim Wakefield
I did a double take when I saw that Wake started 31 games in 2007. My memory of the season told me that he missed more than just the postseason, but alas that is not the case. If the trend continues, I have no reason to expect that his performance will change substantially in ‘08. I’d like to see the ERA come down some, but If it does I don’t think it will be by all that much.
Jon Lester
The feel good story of ‘07 has to be the return of Lester to the Major League roster, but his performance was not quite as inspiring. An off-season without chemotherapy will certainly help, and with any luck he can get his Major League career back on track. Assuming that Lester is the full-time #4 or 5 starter in the rotation and he gets a full 30 starts, this young lefty could probably go 15-10 without too much trouble.
Clay Buchholz
Another young Texas right-hander, Buchholz dazzled us all with his no-no in Baltimore last year, but between Portland, Pawtucket, and Boston Buchholz threw nearly 150 innings and it was more than his young arm was accustomed to in a single season. In the off-season, Boston sent Buchholz and Lester down to Beckett’s ranch in Texas to train with their ace. I’m not sure where Buchholz fits in the rotation and while I’d love to see him start 30 games, winning 20 of them, I’m not real sure those are realistic expectations. I am confident, however, that Buchholz has more impressive things to show us in 2008.
Hideki Okajima
When September came around last year three pitchers hit the wall. Buchholz came up from the minors and the other two from the other side of the Pacific. Assuming that Okie is physically up to the grind, I think we’re going to see a more consistent season out of one of the best set-up guys we’ve ever seen in a Red Sox uniform. I have no reason to expect that he can’t continue to dominate lineups in the 8th inning without having to share time with the juiced canadian.
Jonathan Papelbon
I expect brilliance and unmatched intensity from the best closer in the game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 40 saves, 100 K’s and an ERA under 1.50 from Papelbon in ‘08.
Tags: clay buchholz, curt schilling, daisuke matsuzaka, hideki okajima, jon lester, jonathan papelbon, josh beckett, tim wakefield