UnMatchedSox

If there is anything you like to see in a championship team from one year to the next it is very little change and the 2008 Boston Red Sox definitely qualify. All of the starting 9 played in Boston uniforms last year and many of them have already shown us that they can indeed play in Boston. Of course anything can happen in the course of a 162 game season, but the following is my best guess for the starting 9 and my predictions for their performance this coming year.

CF - Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury looks like he’ll be the big league center fielder and leadoff man in 2008 and will probably get the same treatment Pedroia got last year. Even if he struggles early, expect Francona to stand by him as long as humanly possible. All of Red Sox Nation has very high hopes for Ellsbury and based on the glimpse we got last year our expectations seem reasonable. I fully expect Ellsbury’s batting average to hover around .305 for the season and his OBP to end up around .400. While I think a lot of people will foolishly try and compare Jacoby to Johnny, there is no way he’s going to give us the kind of power Damon did. Instead of looking at Ellsbury as the second coming of Johnny Damon we should be hoping for our own personal Ichiro. Ellsbury’s speed is amazing and I think we’re going to see him leg out a whole lot of infield singles and force infielders to commit more than their fair share of errors trying to catch him.

• BAA - .305
• OBP - .400
• SB - 40

2B - Dustin Pedroia

Is it considered a sophomore slump if a player comes close, but doesn’t match his numbers from his rookie season? Personaly, I don’t think so, but after the performance he gave us in 2007 he did set the bar pretty high. In 2007, Pedroia posted a batting average of .317 and an OBP of .380 and that was with significant inconsistency in the leadoff spot. If Ellsbury has the kind of year I think he will, then look for Pedroia to have an even better year in ‘08. Regardless, I think Pedroia’s average and OBP will be relatively the same as last year. With the speedy Ellsbury in front of him look for Pedroia’s runs batted in to make a nice healthy uptick in to the 60’s.

• BAA - .315
• OBP - .385
• RBI - 68

DH - David Ortiz

The million dollar question with Ortiz is, “How’s the knee?” Last year, David’s power numbers were down significantly from ‘06, but he still managed to post an OPS over 1. If the knee really is back to normal, then look for Papi to have another monster year like he did in ‘06. I believe ‘08 is going to be a big year for David and if he can put ‘07 averages with ‘06 power he’ll finally land that elusive MVP.

• BAA - .325
• HR - 50
• RBI - 130

LF - Manny Ramirez

Its a contract year for Manny and I think the right handed hitting savant of yore will return in full force in 2008. I fully expect that for the entirety of 2008 we’ll be seeing a changed Man-ny. I’m expecting increases across the board and wouldn’t be surprised to see ‘04 or ‘06 numbers.

• BAA - .320
• HR - 40
• RBI - 120

3B - Mike Lowell

Once upon a time he was the “throw-in” in a controversial trade for Josh Beckett and now he’s the 2007 World Series MVP and arguably one of the fan’s favorite Red Sox third baseman of all-time. Lowell’s swing is a natural fit for Fenway and ever since his arrival he’s been a doubles machine putting up 37 and 47 doubles in the past two seasons. What’s more, he’s rediscovered his power, hitting 120 RBI and setting the team record for RBI by a third baseman. I’m expecting pretty much the same level of offensive production from Lowell in ‘08.

• BAA - .315
• 2B - 40
• HR - 22

RF - J.D. Drew

The question on every Sox fan’s mind is, “Can J.D. get any worse?” Frankly, I don’t see how that is possible and remain cautiously optimistic that 2008 will be the year in which we see the real J.D. Drew. Of course, all of that is predicated on the idea that changing leagues, changing cities, and the business with his son’s health played a big part in his performance drop in ‘07. The funny thing about Drew’s 2007 season is that, on paper, its not nearly as bad of a drop-off compared to the one Lowell experienced the year before he joined the Sox. The real issue with Drew is the money and rightfully so. Management gave their right fielder a lot of money to come play here and he hasn’t even come close to earning his check. Hopefully, he’ll do better in ‘08.

• BAA - .280
• HR - 22
• RBI - 80

1B - Kevin Youkilis

In only three short seasons, Kevin Youkilis has managed to do it all from play 3rd and 1st as well as hit in nearly every spot in the order. A natural at getting on base, Kevin had 77 walks last season and an OBP of .390. With the Sox adding backup first baseman Sean Casey, look to see Youkilis serve double duty as the starting 1B as well as the backup to Lowell at third. While not a true power hitter, Youk hit 16 homers and a respectable 83 RBI last season.

• BAA - .285
• OBP - .400
• RBI - 80

C - Jason Varitek

Arguably one of the most valuable members of the team, Varitek’s offense has been in a steady state of decline for two years now. His numbers are declining across the board and I highly doubt we’re going to see much, if any increase this year. The position behind the plate is easily the thinnest spot on the depth chart and the Sox need an heir apparent very badly.

• BAA - 2.45
• HR - 15
• RBI - 75

SS - Julio Lugo

If you told me last June that Lugo would manage to steal 33 bases, knock in 73 runs, and hit 36 doubles, I would have thought you were crazy, but alas Lugo did manage to do all three. Of course, he did finish the season with a .234 batting average and an amazingly bad .294 OBP. For 2008, I am going to operate under the assumption that he can’t possibly get worse.

• BAA - .255
• OBP - .350
• SB - 35

Of course, its still far too early to predict what the opening day 40 man roster is going to look like, but so far so good. While I’d love to see Johan Santana in a Red Sox uniform, I’ll freely admit that I’m rather attached to Ellsbury, Buchholz, and Lester. Assuming that Johan never shows up in the weight room in Fort Myers, I’m still pretty happy with what I see on paper.

Pitching

Josh Beckett

Beckett finished 2007 with a record of 20-7 an ERA of 3.27 and 194 strikeouts. These numbers were excellent, but not great enough to get him a Cy Young. From what little I know about Josh Beckett, I’m expecting even greater things in 2008. It is hard to imagine him improving on his record and ERA, but I do believe they will be better.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

One of two things is going to happen in Dice-K’s sophomore season. He’s either going to be better acclimated to Major League Baseball and have fewer meltdown moments or the batters are going to figure him out and knock the stuffing out of him. I’m going to remain optimistic and expect better things from him in 2008. I am predicting a record around 17-10 and an ERA in the high 3’s, fewer dingers, and upwards of 210 strikeouts.

Curt Schilling

The real question with Curt is, “Can he stay healthy?” I’m convinced he’ll arrive at camp in excellent physical condition, and while that would certainly help there are no givens with 40+ pitchers. I do believe that we’ll see more starts out of #38, but I’m pretty confident they’re going to have him on an ironclad pitch count. If they can keep him off the DL, I believe he can win 18 even at his age. I am not expecting a big improvement over his 3.87 ERA for ‘07 though. He’s going to pitch well enough to win and the offense is going to go out there and get him some wins.

Tim Wakefield

I did a double take when I saw that Wake started 31 games in 2007. My memory of the season told me that he missed more than just the postseason, but alas that is not the case. If the trend continues, I have no reason to expect that his performance will change substantially in ‘08. I’d like to see the ERA come down some, but If it does I don’t think it will be by all that much.

Jon Lester

The feel good story of ‘07 has to be the return of Lester to the Major League roster, but his performance was not quite as inspiring. An off-season without chemotherapy will certainly help, and with any luck he can get his Major League career back on track. Assuming that Lester is the full-time #4 or 5 starter in the rotation and he gets a full 30 starts, this young lefty could probably go 15-10 without too much trouble.

Clay Buchholz

Another young Texas right-hander, Buchholz dazzled us all with his no-no in Baltimore last year, but between Portland, Pawtucket, and Boston Buchholz threw nearly 150 innings and it was more than his young arm was accustomed to in a single season. In the off-season, Boston sent Buchholz and Lester down to Beckett’s ranch in Texas to train with their ace. I’m not sure where Buchholz fits in the rotation and while I’d love to see him start 30 games, winning 20 of them, I’m not real sure those are realistic expectations. I am confident, however, that Buchholz has more impressive things to show us in 2008.

Hideki Okajima

When September came around last year three pitchers hit the wall. Buchholz came up from the minors and the other two from the other side of the Pacific. Assuming that Okie is physically up to the grind, I think we’re going to see a more consistent season out of one of the best set-up guys we’ve ever seen in a Red Sox uniform. I have no reason to expect that he can’t continue to dominate lineups in the 8th inning without having to share time with the juiced canadian.

Jonathan Papelbon

I expect brilliance and unmatched intensity from the best closer in the game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 40 saves, 100 K’s and an ERA under 1.50 from Papelbon in ‘08.

In 1996, Dan Duquette let Roger Clemens leave Boston and even suggested that he had entered the “twilight of his career”. In his final four seasons with Boston, Roger’s record was a mediocre 40-39 and he’d lost some zip. After his departure, that twilight was looking more like dawning of another day. He posted two back-to-back 20-win seasons with Toronto, four more Cy Young Awards, and two World Series rings with the New York Yankees. He became the poster-child for longevity and Duquette the poster-child for bad talent-evaluation. With Roger’s name all over the Mitchell Report linking him to performance-enhancing drugs as early as 1998, you have to ask the question, “Did Duquette get it right?”

There is still some question as to the veracity of the allegations and testimony included in the Mitchell Report on Clemens, but it certainly does feel right. Of course, I still think Duquette was a terrible general manager, but I think he just might have made the right call.

The last time the Yankees were NOT the American League East division champions was 1999. The last time the Red Sox were the American League East division champions was 1995. I’m going to go on record right now and say that the streaks do not end in 2007. With only nine games left to play, the Sox have 3 with Tampa Bay, 2 with Oakland, and 4 with Minnesota. The Yankees, on the other hand, have 4 with Toronto, 3 with Tampa and 3 with Baltimore. You do the math.

Since June 30th, Jacoby Ellsbury has been called up three times and demoted twice and based on his performance of late, it seems unlikely that he’ll be going back to Pawtucket ever again. In the short amount of time Ellsbury has been with the big club he’s been batting .367 with 3 home runs, and 14 runs batted in. He has an OBP of .407 and stolen 10 bases. Arguably, my favorite split is his 1.623 OPS with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. Contrast that with our $14 mil a year rightfielder’s paltry .771 OPS and .194 batting average and you can see why not too many people want to see Drew in the lineup when Manny finally returns.